Unfortunately, there are no signs for a quick turnaround in the truck tire market in 2009, especially at the original equipment level.
In July, medium/heavy truck production in the United States was down 38.4% compared to the previous July, according to Ward’s AutoInfoBank. That is only slightly better than the comparative 46.3% decrease year to date.
In Canada, the drop off in production is more pronounced: 71.5% July vs. July, and 52.4% year to date. Mexican truck production decreases came in at 27.9% and 45.8%, respectively.
Given the continued drop in vehicle production, it's not surprising that the Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA) has revised its 2009 estimates for domestic OE medium/heavy truck tire shipments.
In its March forecast, the RMA projected the following:
Medium/heavy truck tire shipments (in millions of units)
2009 2008 % change
OE 2.6 3.8 Down 31.5%
Five months later, the revised forecast is gloomier.
Revised
2009 2008 % change
OE 2.2 3.8 Down 42.1%
The RMA based its OE estimates on “downward revisions in the economic conditions in the commercial sector.” It sees a “protracted recovery” on the replacement side, which is also down compared to 2008.
There is good news, however. The RMA forecasts a 22% increase in OE truck tire shipments in 2010. A slight increase at the replacement level also is projected.
