Tariffs Create Turbulence in TBR Tire Market

After a less-than-robust first half, TBR tire manufacturers and suppliers are turning their attention to the rest of 2025 and the further uncertainty that tariffs and other market forces are expected to create.

In this MTD exclusive, they discuss the current state of medium truck tire demand and what replacement sales could look like during the rest of the year.  They also comment on the potential impact of tariffs. (Comments were provided in April and May.) 

MTD: What’s the state of commercial medium truck tire demand in the U.S.? What are some of the trends you’re seeing? 

MARSHALL GILLESPIE, director of commercial tire merchandising, American Tire Distributors Inc./Hercules (ATD): Data from the USTMA (U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association is) showing that the trucking industry could face a multitude of headwinds this year impacting replacement tire sales — one of them being the continued rise of operational costs. We continue to see demand grow in the value-tier space as fleets and owner operators make cost-conscious choices to support their businesses. 

GAVIN BROUSSARD, head of sales for commercial tires, Apollo Tyres Ltd.: The market is soft and fleets are laser-focused on upfront pricing due to cash flow pressure and freight uncertainty. Many dealers are also sitting on high inventory, which has slowed reorder activity. However, fleets still expect solid performance and casing value just at a sharper price.  

SCOTT HOEFT, president, commercial truck group, Bridgestone Americas Inc.: Commercial truck industry demand was as expected in the first quarter and slightly negative versus the previous year. Bridgestone projects the full year to be slightly positive versus 2024, subject to any potential market impacts due to tariffs, including freight import reductions or potentially slower or even recessionary impacts in the second half. We are seeing low-tier imports leveling off to historical trends. However, the flight to value is still a key trend in the industry. 

AARON MURPHY, senior vice president, CMA/Double Coin: Replacement shipments are down year-over-year, but not a true indiator of sales. One year ago, inventory flowed into the U.S. from Thailand prior to the anti-dumping ruling. Overall trends are showing a downturn in demand as tonnage is flat and the economic landscape is difficult to understand. 

HAESIK LEE, director of TBR marketing, Hankook Tire America Corp.: The replacement market for commercial medium truck tires remains steady. While there is growth in certain trucking segments and overall tire sector trends which continue to stimulate the market, the overall market is down as customers delay purchases due to economic uncertainty. We do expect this to impact the tire market in the coming year as well. However, there has been a consistent increase in regional trucking in the U.S., which has a direct correlation with a growing replacement market for medium truck tires for those regional vehicles.  

SHAWN DENLEIN, president of sales and marketing, Kumho Tire U.S.A. Inc.: The TBR market has seen a slight decrease in demand in the first quarter (of) 2025 — negative 1.8% versus the prior year, especially among non-USTMA members. Ultimately, we will have to wait and see how this trend will affect the market in conjunction with the Trump administration’s tariff announcement. Overall, we cautiously expect TBR market demand to be at similar levels to the previous year. 

JIM GARRETT, product marketing manager, Michelin North America Inc.: At this time, Michelin feels that the medium truck market is currently in an uncertain period as the combination of fluctuating economic conditions has caused a buildup of inventory in the network and stagnant trucking demands have caused volatility in future outlooks and needs. 

KEN COLTRANE, vice president of product development and marketing, Prinx Chengshan Tire North America (PCTNA): Our TBR orders are up compared to last year. If anything, it seems like as with many types of products, not just tires, there is a lot of trading down from the more expensive tiers. 

CARLO RICCI, marketing manager, U.S.A. and Canada, Prometeon: Demand for replacement commercial medium truck tires in the U.S. is stable right now, but it’s also more competitive and value-driven than it has been in recent years. Tires are still moving, but customers are being more deliberate. They are focused on what delivers performance, consistency and long-term value rather than making decisions based on habit or brand recognition alone. We’re seeing a noticeable shift in the types of applications driving demand. Regional haul and pickup and delivery are gaining more traction as freight continues to rebalance. That has an impact on the tire specs customers are prioritizing.  

BRIAN SHEEHEY, president, Ralson Tire North America: The first quarter of the year was steady, but not robust. April has filled dealers and fleets with significant guarded caution and a hesitancy to invest discretionary capital due to the reciprocal tariff announcement and the subsequent adjustments and delays that have accompanied them. Without clearer process guidelines, we are all operating on assumptions that may or may not be correct. 

JUSTIN LARGE, director of sales, corporate accounts, commercial products, North America, Sailun Tire Americas: As of the second quarter of 2025, demand for replacement commercial medium truck tires in the U.S. is stable with modest growth, following a rebound in 2024 after a soft 2023. (There is) increased demand from construction and regional haul segments as infrastructure spending continues. Fleet operators are becoming more selective, prioritizing total cost of ownership over upfront price. (There is an) ongoing shift to fuel-efficient and retread-friendly tires, especially among larger fleets, (and) inventory normalization, with many distributors now more cautious following oversupply in 2022 to 2023. 

NURALI BUNYATOV, vice president, commercial brand management, TBC Corp.: We are observing stable demand for replacement TBR tires, with elevated April volumes compared to last year. The market is awaiting a final decision on reciprocal tariffs, but remains steady overall. We are not observing any major shifts in customer purchasing behavior, aside from an increase in purchases through distribution centers versus factory direct imports. 

JOAQUIN GONZALEZ, president, Tire Group International LLC (TGI): I believe first quarter numbers for this segment were up about 1% over the previous year. This indicates to me that 2025 looks to continue the steady 2024 rebound in the segment over a very disappointing 2023, where deliveries were down by over 20%. Some trends that bear watching include the continued growth in the tier-three and tier-four segments. These value-line offerings seem to be on a path to continue to increased market share as fleets, regardless of size, look to find ways to manage operating costs. Another continuing trend is the growth of light commercial vehicle fleets. As these fleets grow to service the needs of companies like Amazon, tire demand will continue to rise due to higher annual miles driven, city road conditions (high-scrub) and lots of stop/start. 

PHILLIP KANE, CEO, Turbo Wholesale Tires LLC: Artificial intelligence (AI) is having an indirectly negative impact on our industry. Digital freight platforms/brokerage automation and AI-driven routing software have greatly reduced slop and inefficiency in trucking, leading to fewer miles driven per ton of freight. These gains will reduce tire wear and in turn industry sales. With the recent explosion of last-mile delivery, we have seen a shift in usage from regional TBR tires to smaller fabric- and steel-construction passenger/LT tires, reducing demand for traditional truck tires. Coupled with the above, due to congestion in urban areas, many shippers have found that intermodal plus last-mile makes more sense than full truckload plus last-mile in dense population centers, leading to less tire wear.  

VAHE TCHAGHLASSIAN, vice president of marketing and sales, Wholesale Tire Distributors (WTD): U.S. replacement medium truck tire sales experienced modest growth in the first quarter of 2025, although recent trade tensions and tariffs have created uncertainty in the market. 

DEMETRIC MASS, national product manager, Galaxy truck tires, Yokohama Off-Highway Tires America Inc.: There’s a strong flow of commercial medium truck tires hitting the market, giving customers lots of choices. As a result, buyers are becoming more price-focused and transactional in their purchasing decisions. This has caused top-tier producers to shift their strategy to focus more on OEMs and national accounts, which are typically less price-sensitive than smaller operations. The big brands leaving behind smaller businesses have really opened the door for more value-oriented manufacturers to play in these spaces. In recent years, the gap in quality between the premium players and more affordable options has shrunk and now smaller fleets are seeing first-hand just how well more price-sensitive tires can compete with the market’s top-tier offerings. 

DAN FUNKHOUSER, vice president of commercial sales, Yokohama Tire Corp. (YTC): First, let’s backtrack a bit. In 2024, the commercial tire market experienced several notable trends and developments. Thanks to e-commerce and the growing need for efficient delivery services, there was a steady increase in demand. Also there were safety and efficiency innovations introduced, such as sensors to monitor air pressure and temperature. In 2024, we saw a major push for more fuel-efficient tires. There was also a consolidation in the fleet and dealer business. This helped strengthen some market positions and product portfolios. As for 2025, I am an eternal optimist. As such, I still have a positive outlook for this year, even though there are major headwinds in the industry. The wild card, as always, will be the economy.  

MTD: What will replacement medium truck tire sales be like during the rest of 2025? 

GILLESPIE (ATD/Hercules): Trying to forecast the remainder of 2025 today would require a crystal ball that we all wish we had. In the short-term,  we will see a surge in medium truck imports throughout the second quarter as importers try to beat the looming reciprocal tariffs scheduled for the third quarter. For now, multiple what-if scenarios could be formed as importers try to plan and execute properly for their customers. Depending on if or when these planned tariffs are implemented, the industry could see supply chain disruptions in the U.S impacting supply late-2025  into early-2026, along with further price  increases into the market.  

BROUSSARD (Apollo): We expect a gradual rebound in the second half of 2025 as freight stabilizes. While the market has been price-driven, pending tariffs could  shift focus back to value, performance and  supply reliability. 

HOEFT (Bridgestone): While the start of the year has been solid, there is still caution for the rest of the year because of potential tariffs and their overall economic impact. The uncertainty is leading to slower fleet spending overall, which could impact tire sales for the remainder of the year. Absent the potential tariff headwinds, the market is on a slow but steady pace of recovery. 

MURPHY (CMA/Double Coin): Unknown at this time based on recession fears and shipment slowdowns due to tariffs. Indicators are showing sales will retreat versus 2024. 

LEE (Hankook): The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association forecasts a marginal 0.8% increase in replacement truck tire shipments for this coming year. This underscores the ongoing market rebound following more sluggish years immediately following the pandemic. Now, we’re seeing more customers panic-purchasing or trying to get ahead of potential inventory challenges or price increases due to tariffs. As that situation stabilizes, we expect sales to do the same and remain relatively flat for the year. 

DENLEIN (Kumho): Demand in the TBR market is directly affected by the volume of cargo freight and construction, infrastructure, etc. Currently, it is difficult to predict what effect the tariff will have on imported products, but many experts predict that it will negatively impact economic recovery. Given this, we need to continue monitoring the situation. 

GARRETT (Michelin): First quarter sell-in volumes for domestic manufacturers were up due to exceeding demand. This is likely in preparation for the current uncertainty toward the overall macro-economy in the United States and Canada. The current 2025 outlook is trending in line with a flat market in the second half. 

COLTRANE (PCTNA): We expect the market will have moderate growth. 

RICCI (Prometeon): We see the rest of 2025 as a real opportunity in the commercial medium truck tire market. The 10% tariff on imported tires is forcing the entire industry to adjust, but it’s also creating a clear separation between companies that are positioned to deliver value, and those that aren’t. Prices are moving up across the market and that’s going to make customers much more focused on finding partners who can offer quality, durability and a true cost-per-mile advantage. We are optimistic that tire sales will continue — they have to — but buyers are going to be more selective about who they trust with their business. We expect replacement sales to be stable overall. 

SHEEHEY (Ralson): I expect there to be a decrease in sales based on the current economic uncertainty. If/when the tariff picture gets clearer and agreements are made, there may be a short period of pent-up demand bulk purchasing. How much demand will be based on how long it takes to reach country-by-country agreements. 

LARGE (Sailun): The outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, but is heavily dependent on broader economic conditions and new trade policies. Fuel prices and freight activity will be key indicators. Stronger freight means more tire wear and replacement demand. Fleets are focused on cost control, so demand may shift toward value-tier brands or products with proven retreadability and fuel-saving technologies. However, tariff-related cost increases may temper buying decisions in the second half of the year. 

BUNYATOV (TBC): Based on pre-buying activity from earlier this year and some macro-economic uncertainty, we anticipate a steady market for replacement commercial medium truck tires for the remainder of 2025. 

GONZALEZ (TGI): USTMA forecasts some modest growth — about 1% — in the replacement commercial truck tire segment for 2025. Based on what we saw in the first quarter, I feel that the trend should continue, slow and steady, but on an upwards arc. 

TCHAGHLASSIAN (WTD): The initially anticipated growth in replacement commercial medium truck tire sales for 2025 is expected to slow in the latter half of the year due to the impact of tariffs and supply chain challenges. Tire dealers are recognizing that while tariffs are driving price increases, maintaining adequate inventory remains critical to sustaining supply.  

MASS (Yokohama Off-Highway): While I don’t have a definitive answer — I wish I had a crystal ball — I’m optimistic about the rest of 2025 and foresee the market for commercial medium truck tires remaining strong. E-commerce and the need for efficient delivery services will keep trucks busy getting products to consumers. Whether it’s shipping goods newly arrived from overseas or redistributing products already in the U.S., there’s going to be demand for truck tires. The question is which manufacturers are going to be servicing these busy fleets. A lot of manufacturers will have to make hard decisions on pricing — just how much of the rising costs due to tariffs they will absorb and how much they will pass on to their customers. This challenge presents an opportunity for well-backed producers. 

FUNKHOUSER (YTC): At this point, commercial replacement market is anyone’s guess for 2025. Regardless of the market’s condition, Yokohama will continue to be active and visible in the market. 

MTD: What impact, if any, will tariffs recently announced by the Trump administration have on the U.S. replacement medium truck tire market? 

GILLESPIE (ATD/Hercules): Policy volatility has continued to cause confusion and disruption throughout the industry and importers need to be agile with the understanding that everything could change the following week. The commercial market has already seen the first wave of price increases announced by key brands, which I assume will be a fast follow for the rest of the industry.  

BROUSSARD (Apollo): The proposed tariffs will create short-term uncertainty around pricing for some imported tires. While it’s too early to gauge the full impact, we anticipate fleets and dealers will begin evaluating new options. Our priority is to support our partners with dependable products, a strong value proposition, and partnerships that are built to last. 

HOEFT (Bridgestone): It is too early to determine the exact impact of the announced automotive and reciprocal tariffs on our operations. Our priority remains ensuring business continuity while balancing short-term factors with long-term strategies and commitments. 

MURPHY (CMA/Double Coin): We feel it will have a significant impact as supply chain fragmentation will occur during the transition. In addition, costs will increase for both imported and domestic products to the dealer and fleet. 

LEE (Hankook): As an industry, we are all monitoring the potential impact of the evolving tariffs across all segments. 

DENLEIN (Kumho): As mentioned, it is difficult to say what the impact will be on the market. Understandably, there are concerns that it will lead to a market downturn. Since this is an evolving situation, we need to wait and see how matters unfold and determine the best solutions going forward. 

GARRETT (Michelin): Consistent with our local-to-local strategy, Michelin manufactures tires close to the markets where they are sold. We are assessing the potential impact of the most recent tariff announcements made by the Trump administration on April 2. At this stage, it is too early to provide specific details. 

COLTRANE (PCTNA): The tariffs on TBR tires are basically the same for everyone. If they stay where they are now, it will be business as usual. 

RICCI (Prometeon): The 10% tariff on imported commercial truck tires is already changing the dynamics of the U.S. replacement market. It’s driving up costs across the board, tightening margins and forcing every player in the supply chain — from importers to dealers — to make fast decisions. This isn’t just a pricing issue. It’s a shift in how the market operates.  

SHEEHEY (Ralson): The TBR (tire) industry is holding its breath until country-by-country issues are solved. We are in a level of caution not seen since the beginning of the early COVID-19 slowdown. However, the U.S. economy is a resilient engine of growth and patience and planning are key to moving forward 

LARGE (Sailun): Although the situation remains very fluid, if the (Trump) administration ultimately proceeds with these changes, the expected impacts will include price increases across all tiers (and) inventory disruptions as some dealers order additional stock ahead of tariff enactments, while others will cancel orders for fear of holding overpriced inventory. Imported tires will continue to play a key role in U.S. supply, as there is not enough domestic production to meet the country’s full demand.  

GONZALEZ (TGI): Right now, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty as to what impact the tariffs will have on the replacement market. Obviously, higher prices on products coming in from overseas could significantly impact (lower) demand. That lowered demand could in turn negatively impact trucking capacity needed to carry freight, which in turn would reduce miles driven. 

KANE (Turbo): With the recent tariff determination that TBR tires are, in-effect, an auto part, two things will be true moving forward: the playing field for imported truck tires will remain relatively level and prices of TBR tires are going up. Neither of those things can be bad for our industry. 

TCHAGHLASSIAN (WTD): The recently announced tariffs have introduced uncertainty and potential challenges for the U.S. replacement medium truck tire market. 

MASS (Yokohama Off-Highway): The tariffs are going to have everyone scrambling, from the manufacturers to the fleets they service. Another potential impact of tariffs is that the long-haul market could start cutting into regional business.  

FUNKHOUSER (YTC): As the situation is still fluid, it’s too early to determine the full impacts and we’ll continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust accordingly.