The recent death of famous “mentalist” and frequent “Tonight Show” guest (88 appearances!) The Amazing Kreskin has put me in a prognosticative frame of mind.
In other words, I’ve made some new year’s predictions, including a few about the great opportunities headed your way. In no particular order, here are seven forecasts for 2025. I’m confident they all will come true.
7. No new tariffs on tires. A massive topic of speculation last year was the potential magnitude of tariffs that would be imposed on tiremakers that export commercial medium truck tires made in Thailand to the United States. Several months ago, the U.S. Department of Commerce finally settled on a 12.33% tariff for most tiremakers that export TBR tires from Thailand. One company, Bridgestone Americas Inc., will be forced to pay a rate of nearly 50%. These fees are quite a bit higher than the preliminary rates revealed this past summer. The government also announced that tariffs on TBR tires exported to the U.S. from China will remain in effect. Will the United Steelworkers push for more tariffs this year? No. I believe they’ll take their win — or in this case, several wins — step back and determine their next move. But that next move won’t happen in 2025.
6. More tiremakers will invest in domestic manufacturing. I don’t expect to see any repatriation of tire manufacturing to the United States, Canada or Mexico. However, I predict that more tiremakers will continue to invest in existing plants within the North American Free Trade zone to expand capacity, modernize operations and provide insulation from the unpredictability of international shipping.
5. More brands will enter the market. Strolling around the 2024 SEMA Show, I was astounded at the sheer number of new tire brands — many in what some people call the “value tier”— that are now available to North American tire dealers. As many consumers continue to drift toward less-expensive tires — a trend that shows no sign of stopping — you will have more product options in 2025 than arguably ever before.
4. Smaller tire wholesalers will gain share. Another huge story in 2024 was the bankruptcy of American Tire Distributors Inc. (ATD), the second time the wholesaler filed Chapter 11 in the past six years. ATD recently announced it has entered a “stalking horse” agreement with a consortium of buyers. That’s good news for smaller tire wholesale distributors, who will continue to pick up new share and shelf space while the gigantic ATD fights to regain its footing. As a side prediction, I also believe that ATD will emerge from bankruptcy during 2025. But the company could look different if its new owners decide to shed locations.
3. Auto service opportunities will abound. According to a mid-2024 report by S&P Global Mobility, the average age of cars and light trucks in the United States has risen to 12.6 years — an all-time high. “More vehicles are entering the prime range for aftermarket service, typically from six to 14 years of age,” says Todd Campau, aftermarket practice lead at S&P Global Mobility. “With more than 110 million vehicles in that sweet spot — reflecting nearly 38% of the fleet on the road — we expect continued growth in the volume of vehicles in that age range to rise to an estimated 40% through 2028.” A lot of this business will be coming your way. Get ready for it.
2. More deals will be done. I didn’t see it coming at the start of last year, but there were more publicly announced tire dealership acquisitions during 2024 than what were announced in 2023. Very likely, many more acquisitions weren’t publicized. With the rate of inflation steadily declining — falling to 2.7% this past November, down from a 2024 peak of 3.5% in March — and inching closer to the Federal Reserve’s stated target of 2%, I predict we’ll see more acquisitions happen and not just big ones. Expect to see more consolidation at the single-store level as tire dealers who are aging out of the business seek to cash in their chips.
1. Independents will continue to dominate. At the retail level, nobody moved more units in 2024 than independent tire dealers, who together made up 67% of the consumer tire retail channel. (Independents enjoy an even larger share — 80% — of the consumer tire wholesale channel.) Simply said, nobody takes better care of customers than independent tire dealers. All it takes is one outstanding interaction to win a new client. Independent tire dealers, like you, know this better than anyone else. And they’re better at it than anyone else.
What are your predictions for 2025? We’d love to hear them!
